1PAGE 1 WORLD3 - THE DYNAMICS OF GROWTH IN A FINITE WORLD (C) 1978 UND * * * * * S O U R C E L I S T I N G * * * * * 0001 TITLE WORLD3 - THE DYNAMICS OF GROWTH IN A FINITE WORLD 00000010 0002 * EULER 00000020 0003 NOTE LIMITS TO GROWTH BY DONELLA MEADOWS ET.AL. 00000030 0004 NOTE THIS IS THE VERSION USED IN THE TECHNICAL REPORT 00000040 0005 NOTE LAST REVISED DECEMBER 14,1972 00000050 0006 NOTE 00000060 0007 NOTE POPULATION SECTOR 00000070 0008 NOTE 00000080 0009 A POP.K=P1.K+P2.K+P3.K+P4.K 00000090 0010 L P1.K=INTGRL(B.JK-D1.JK-MAT1.JK) 00000100 0011 N P1=P1I 00000110 0012 C P1I=65E7 00000120 0013 R D1.KL=P1.K*M1.K 00000130 0014 A M1.K=TABHL(M1T,LE.K,20,80,10) 00000140 0015 T M1T=.0567,.0366,.0243,.0155,.0032,.0023,.001 00000150 0016 R MAT1.KL=(P1.K)(1-M1.K)/15 00000160 0017 L P2.K=INTGRL(MAT1.JK-D2.JK-MAT2.JK) 00000170 0018 N P2=P2I 00000180 0019 C P2I=70E7 00000190 0020 R D2.KL=P2.K*M2.K 00000200 0021 A M2.K=TABHL(M2T,LE.K,20,80,10) 00000210 0022 T M2T=.0266,.0171,.0110,.0065,.0040,.0016,.0008 00000220 0023 R MAT2.KL=(P2.K)(1-M2.K)/30 00000230 0024 L P3.K=INTGRL(MAT2.JK-D3.JK-MAT3.JK) 00000240 0025 N P3=P3I 00000250 0026 C P3I=19E7 00000260 0027 R D3.KL=P3.K*M3.K 00000270 0028 A M3.K=TABHL(M3T,LE.K,20,80,10) 00000280 0029 T M3T=.0562,.0373,.0252,.0171,.0118,.0083,.006 00000290 0030 R MAT3.KL=(P3.K)(1-M3.K)/20 00000300 0031 L P4.K=INTGRL(MAT3.JK-D4.JK) 00000310 0032 N P4=P4I 00000320 0033 C P4I=6E7 00000330 0034 R D4.KL=P4.K*M4.K 00000340 0035 A M4.K=TABHL(M4T,LE.K,20,80,10) 00000350 0036 T M4T=.13,.11,.09,.07,.06,.05,.04 00000360 0037 NOTE 00000370 0038 NOTE DEATH RATE SUBSECTOR 00000380 0039 NOTE 00000390 0040 A D.K=(P1.K*M1.K)+(P2.K*M2.K)+(P3.K*M3.K)+(P4.K*M4.K) 00000400 0041 S CDR.K=1000*D.K/POP.K 00000410 $ 1) ***** W A R N I N G ***** ND0588 0042 A LE.K=LEN*LMF.K*LMHS.K*LMP.K*LMC.K 00000420 0043 C LEN=28 00000430 0044 A LMF.K=TABHL(LMFT,FPC.K/SFPC,0,5,1) 00000440 0045 T LMFT=0,1,1.2,1.3,1.35,1.4 00000450 0046 A LMHS.K=CLIP(LMHS2.K,LMHS1.K,TIME.K,1940) 00000460 0047 A LMHS1.K=TABHL(LMHS1T,EHSPC.K,0,100,20) 00000470 0048 T LMHS1T=1,1.1,1.4,1.6,1.7,1.8 00000480 0049 A LMHS2.K=TABHL(LMHS2T,EHSPC.K,0,100,20) 00000490 0050 T LMHS2T=1,1.4,1.6,1.8,1.95,2.0 00000500 0051 A EHSPC.K=NEW6.K 00000510 0052 N NEW6=7.0810 00000520 1PAGE 2 WORLD3 - THE DYNAMICS OF GROWTH IN A FINITE WORLD (C) 1978 UND 0053 L NEW6.K=INTGRL(NE6RAT.JK) 00000530 0054 R NE6RAT.KL=(HSAPC.K-NEW6.K)/HSID 00000540 0055 C HSID=20 00000550 0056 A HSAPC.K=TABHL(HSAPCT,SOPC.K,0,2000,250) 00000560 0057 T HSAPCT=0,20,50,95,140,175,200,220,230 00000570 0058 A FPU.K=TABHL(FPUT,POP.K,0,16E9,2E9) 00000580 0059 T FPUT=0,.2,.4,.58,.65,.72,.78,.80 00000590 0060 A CMI.K=TABHL(CMIT,IOPC.K,0,1600,200) 00000600 0061 T CMIT=.5,.05,-.1,-.08,-.02,.05,.1,.15,.2 00000610 0062 A LMC.K=1-(CMI.K*FPU.K) 00000620 0063 A LMP.K=TABHL(LMPT,PPOLX.K,0,100,10) 00000630 0064 T LMPT=1.0,.99,.97,.95,.90,.85,.75,.65,.55,.40,.20 00000640 0065 NOTE 00000650 0066 NOTE BIRTH RATE SECTOR 00000660 0067 NOTE 00000670 0068 R B.KL=CLIP(D.K,(TF.K*P2.K*0.5/RLT),TIME.K,PET) 00000680 0069 C RLT=30 00000690 0070 C PET=4000 00000700 0071 S CBR.K=1000*B.JK/POP.K 00000710 $ 1) ***** W A R N I N G ***** ND0588 0072 A TF.K=MIN(MTF.K,(MTF.K*(1-FCE.K)+DTF.K*FCE.K)) 00000720 0073 A MTF.K=MTFN*FM.K 00000730 0074 C MTFN=12 00000740 0075 A FM.K=TABHL(FMT,LE.K,0,80,10) 00000750 0076 T FMT=0,.2,.4,.6,.8,.9,1,1.05,1.1 00000760 0077 A DTF.K=DCFS.K*CMPLE.K 00000770 0078 A DCFS.K=CLIP(2.0,DCFSN*FRSN.K*SFSN.K,TIME.K,ZPGT) 00000780 0079 C ZPGT=4000 00000790 0080 C DCFSN=4 00000800 0081 A FRSN.K=TABHL(FRSNT,FIE.K,-.2,.2,.1) 00000810 0082 T FRSNT=.5,.6,.7,.85,1 00000820 0083 A FIE.K=(IOPC.K-AIOPC.K)/AIOPC.K 00000830 0084 A AIOPC.K=NEW5.K 00000840 0085 N NEW5=40.876 00000850 0086 L NEW5.K=INTGRL(NE5RAT.JK) 00000860 0087 R NE5RAT.KL=(IOPC.K-NEW5.K)/IEAT 00000870 0088 C IEAT=3 00000880 0089 A SFSN.K=TABHL(SFSNT,DIOPC.K,0,800,200) 00000890 0090 T SFSNT=1.25,1,.9,.8,.75 00000900 0091 A DIOPC.K=O3.K 00000910 0092 N O1=40.876 00000920 0093 N O2=40.876 00000930 0094 N O3=40.876 00000940 0095 L O1.K=INTGRL(RO1.JK) 00000950 0096 L O2.K=INTGRL(RO2.JK) 00000960 0097 L O3.K=INTGRL(RO3.JK) 00000970 0098 R RO1.KL=(IOPC.K-O1.K)/(SAD/3) 00000980 0099 R RO2.KL=(O1.K-O2.K)/(SAD/3) 00000990 0100 R RO3.KL=(O2.K-O3.K)/(SAD/3) 00001000 0101 C SAD=20 00001010 0102 A CMPLE.K=TABHL(CMPLET,PLE.K,0,80,10) 00001020 0103 T CMPLET=3,2.1,1.6,1.4,1.3,1.2,1.1,1.05,1 00001030 0104 A PLE.K=N3.K 00001040 0105 N N1=28.351 00001050 0106 L N1.K=INTGRL(RN1.JK) 00001060 1PAGE 3 WORLD3 - THE DYNAMICS OF GROWTH IN A FINITE WORLD (C) 1978 UND 0107 R RN1.KL=(LE.K-N1.K)/(LPD/3) 00001070 0108 N N2=28.351 00001080 0109 L N2.K=INTGRL(RN2.JK) 00001090 0110 R RN2.KL=(N1.K-N2.K)/(LPD/3) 00001100 0111 N N3=28.351 00001110 0112 L N3.K=INTGRL(RN3.JK) 00001120 0113 R RN3.KL=(N2.K-N3.K)/(LPD/3) 00001130 0114 C LPD=20 00001140 0115 A FCE.K=CLIP(1.0,(TABHL(FCET,FCFPC.K,0,3,.5)),TIME.K,FCEST) 00001150 0116 C FCEST=4000 00001160 0117 T FCET=.75,.85,.9,.95,.98,.99,1 00001170 0118 A FCFPC.K=N6.K 00001180 0119 N N4=.098140 00001190 0120 N N5=.098140 00001200 0121 N N6=.098140 00001210 0122 L N4.K=INTGRL(RN4.JK) 00001220 0123 L N5.K=INTGRL(RN5.JK) 00001230 0124 L N6.K=INTGRL(RN6.JK) 00001240 0125 R RN4.KL=(LE.K-N4.K)/(LPD/3) 00001250 0126 R RN5.KL=(N4.K-N5.K)/(LPD/3) 00001260 0127 R RN6.KL=(N5.K-N6.K)/(LPD/3) 00001270 0128 A FCAPC.K=FSAFC.K*SOPC.K 00001280 $ 1) ***** W A R N I N G ***** ND0588 0129 A FSAFC.K=TABHL(FSAFCT,NFC.K,0,10,2) 00001290 0130 T FSAFCT=0,.005,.015,.025,.03,.035 00001300 0131 A NFC.K=(MTF.K/DTF.K)-1 00001310 0132 NOTE 00001320 0133 NOTE CAPITAL SECTOR 00001330 0134 NOTE 00001340 0135 NOTE INDUSTRIAL SUBSECTOR 00001350 0136 NOTE 00001360 0137 A IOPC.K=IO.K/POP.K 00001370 0138 A IO.K=(IC.K)(1-FCAOR.K)(CUF.K)/ICOR.K 00001380 0139 A ICOR.K=CLIP(ICOR2,ICOR1,TIME.K,PYEAR) 00001390 0140 C ICOR1=3 00001400 0141 C ICOR2=3 00001410 0142 L IC.K=INTGRL(ICIR.JK-ICDR.JK) 00001420 0143 N IC=ICI 00001430 0144 C ICI=2.1E11 00001440 0145 R ICDR.KL=IC.K/ALIC.K 00001450 0146 A ALIC.K=CLIP(ALIC2,ALIC1,TIME.K,PYEAR) 00001460 0147 C ALIC1=14 00001470 0148 C ALIC2=14 00001480 0149 R ICIR.KL=(IO.K)(FIOAI.K) 00001490 0150 A FIOAI.K=(1-FIOAA.K-FIOAS.K-FIOAC.K) 00001500 0151 A FIOAC.K=CLIP(FIOACV.K,FIOACC.K,TIME.K,IET) 00001510 0152 C IET=4000 00001520 0153 A FIOACC.K=CLIP(FIOAC2,FIOAC1,TIME.K,PYEAR) 00001530 0154 C FIOAC1=.43 00001540 0155 C FIOAC2=.43 00001550 0156 A FIOACV.K=TABHL(FIOACT,IOPC.K/IOPCD,0,2,.2) 00001560 0157 T FIOACT=.3,.32,.34,.36,.38,.43,.73,.77,.81,.82,.83 00001570 0158 C IOPCD=400 00001580 0159 NOTE 00001590 0160 NOTE SERVICE SUBSECTOR 00001600 1PAGE 4 WORLD3 - THE DYNAMICS OF GROWTH IN A FINITE WORLD (C) 1978 UND 0161 NOTE 00001610 0162 A ISOPC.K=CLIP(ISOPC2.K,ISOPC1.K,TIME.K,PYEAR) 00001620 0163 A ISOPC1.K=TABHL(ISPCIT,IOPC.K,0,1600,200) 00001630 0164 T ISPCIT=40,300,640,1000,1220,1450,1650,1800,2000 00001640 0165 A ISOPC2.K=TABHL(ISPC2T,IOPC.K,0,1600,200) 00001650 0166 T ISPC2T=40,300,640,1000,1220,1450,1650,1800,2000 00001660 0167 A FIOAS.K=CLIP(FIOAS2.K,FIOAS1.K,TIME.K,PYEAR) 00001670 0168 A FIOAS1.K=TABHL(FIAS1T,SOPC.K/ISOPC.K,0,2,.5) 00001680 0169 T FIAS1T=.3,.2,.1,.05,0 00001690 0170 A FIOAS2.K=TABHL(FIAS2T,SOPC.K/ISOPC.K,0,2,.5) 00001700 0171 T FIAS2T=.3,.2,.1,.05,0 00001710 0172 R SCIR.KL=(IC.K)(FIOAS.K) 00001720 0173 L SC.K=INTGRL(SCIR.JK-SCDR.JK) 00001730 0174 N SC=SCI 00001740 0175 C SCI=1.44E11 00001750 0176 R SCDR.KL=SC.K/ALSC.K 00001760 0177 A ALSC.K=CLIP(ALSC2,ALSC1,TIME.K,PYEAR) 00001770 0178 C ALSC1=20 00001780 0179 C ALSC2=20 00001790 0180 A SO.K=(SC.K*CUF.K)/(SCOR.K) 00001800 0181 A SOPC.K=SO.K/POP.K 00001810 0182 A SCOR.K=CLIP(SCOR2,SCOR1,TIME.K,PYEAR) 00001820 0183 C SCOR1=1 00001830 0184 C SCOR2=1 00001840 0185 NOTE 00001850 0186 NOTE JOB SECTOR 00001860 0187 NOTE 00001870 0188 A J.K=PJIS.K+PJAS.K+PJSS.K 00001880 0189 A PJIS.K=(IC.K)(JPICU.K) 00001890 0190 A JPICU.K=(TABHL(JPICUT,IOPC.K,50,800,50))*.001 00001900 0191 T JPICUT=.37,.25,.2,.18,.16,.13,.12,.11,.1,.09,.08,.07,.07,.07,.07,.07 00001910 0192 A PJSS.K=(SC.K)(JPSCU.K) 00001920 0193 A JPSCU.K=(TABHL(JPSCUT,SOPC.K,50,800,50))*.001 00001930 0194 T JPSCUT=101,.9,.7,.6,.5,.4,.35,.25,.2,.2,.2,.2,.15,.15,.15,.15 00001940 0195 A PJAS.K=(JPH.K)(AL.K) 00001950 0196 A JPH.K=TABHL(JPHT,AIPH.K,2,30,4) 00001960 0197 T JPHT=2,.5,.4,.3,.27,.24,.2,.2 00001970 0198 A LF.K=(P2.K+P3.K)*LFPF 00001980 0199 C LFPF=.75 00001990 0200 A LUF.K=J.K/LF.K 00002000 0201 A LUFD.K=NEW2.K 00002010 0202 N NEW2=.97478 00002020 0203 L NEW2.K=INTGRL(NEWRAT.JK) 00002030 0204 R NEWRAT.KL=(LUF.K-NEW2.K)/LUFDT 00002040 0205 C LUFDT=2 00002050 0206 A CUF.K=TABHL(CUFT,LUFD.K,1,11,2) 00002060 0207 T CUFT=1,.9,.7,.3,.1,.1 00002070 0208 NOTE 00002080 0209 NOTE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR 00002090 0210 NOTE 00002100 0211 NOTE LOOP 1 - FOOD FROM INVESTMENT IN LAND DEVELOPMENT 00002110 0212 NOTE 00002120 0213 L AL.K=INTGRL(LDR.JK-LER.JK-LRUI.JK) 00002130 0214 N AL=ALI 00002140 0215 C ALI=.9E9 00002150 0216 L PAL.K=INTGRL(-LDR.JK) 00002160 0217 N PAL=PALI 00002170 1PAGE 5 WORLD3 - THE DYNAMICS OF GROWTH IN A FINITE WORLD (C) 1978 UND 0218 C PALI=2.3E9 00002180 0219 A LFC.K=AL.K/PALT 00002190 $ 1) ***** W A R N I N G ***** ND0588 0220 C PALT=3.2E9 00002200 0221 A F.K=LY.K*AL.K*LFH*(1-PL) 00002210 0222 C LFH=.7 00002220 0223 C PL=.1 00002230 0224 A FPC.K=F.K/POP.K 00002240 0225 A IFPC.K=CLIP(IFPC2.K,IFPC1.K,TIME.K,PYEAR) 00002250 0226 A IFPC1.K=TABHL(IFPC1T,IOPC.K,0,1600,200) 00002260 0227 T IFPC1T=230,480,690,850,970,1070,1150,1210,1250 00002270 0228 A IFPC2.K=TABHL(IFPC2T,IOPC.K,0,1600,200) 00002280 0229 T IFPC2T=230,480,690,850,970,1070,1150,1210,1250 00002290 0230 A TAI.K=IO.K*FIOAA.K 00002300 0231 A FIOAA.K=CLIP(FIOAA2.K,FIOAA1.K,TIME.K,PYEAR) 00002310 0232 A FIOAA1.K=TABHL(FIAA1T,FPC.K/IFPC.K,0,2.5,.5) 00002320 0233 T FIAA1T=.4,.2,.1,.025,0,0 00002330 0234 A FIOAA2.K=TABHL(FIAA2T,FPC.K/IFPC.K,0,2.5,.5) 00002340 0235 T FIAA2T=.4,.2,.1,.025,.0,0 00002350 0236 R LDR.KL=TAI.K*FIALD.K/DCPH.K 00002360 0237 A DCPH.K=TABHL(DCPHT,PAL.K/PALT,0,1,.1) 00002370 0238 T DCPHT=1E5,7400,5200,3500,2400,1500,750,300,150,75,50 00002380 0239 NOTE 00002390 0240 NOTE LOOP2 - FOOD FROM INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURAL INPUTS 00002400 0241 NOTE 00002410 0242 A CAI.K=TAI.K*(1-FIALD.K) 00002420 0243 A AI.K=NEW3.K 00002430 0244 N NEW3=5477E6 00002440 0245 L NEW3.K=INTGRL(NEWRAT.JK) 00002450 0246 R NE3RAT.KL=(CAI.K-NEW3.K)/ALAI.K 00002460 $ 1) ***** W A R N I N G ***** ND0588 0247 A ALAI.K=CLIP(ALAI2,ALAI1,TIME.K,PYEAR) 00002470 0248 C ALAI1=2 00002480 0249 C ALAI2=2 00002490 0250 A AIPH.K=AI.K*(1-FALM.K)/AL.K 00002500 0251 A LYMC.K=TABHL(LYMCT,AIPH.K,0,1000,40) 00002510 0252 T LYMCT=1,3,3.8,4.4,4.9,5.4,5.7,6.0,6.3,6.6,6.9,7.2, 00002520 X 7.4,7.6,7.8,8,8.2,8.4,8.6,8.8,9.0,9.2,9.4,9.6,9.8,10 00002530 0253 A LY.K=LYF.K*LFERT.K*LYMC.K*LYMAP.K 00002540 0254 A LYF.K=CLIP(LYF2,LYF1,TIME.K,PYEAR) 00002550 0255 C LYF1=1 00002560 0256 C LYF2=1 00002570 0257 A LYMAP.K=CLIP(LYMAP2.K,LYMAP1.K,TIME.K,PYEAR) 00002580 0258 A LYMAP1.K=TABHL(LYMP1T,IO.K/IO70,0,30,10) 00002590 0259 T LYMP1T=1,1,.7,.4 00002600 0260 A LYMAP2.K=TABHL(LYMP2T,IO.K/IO70,0,30,10) 00002610 0261 T LYMP2T=1,1,.7,.4 00002620 0262 C IO70=7.9E11 00002630 0263 NOTE 00002640 0264 NOTE LOOPS 1 & 2 - THE INVESTMENT ALLOCATION DECISON 00002650 0265 NOTE 00002660 0266 A FIALD.K=TABHL(FIALDT,(MPLD.K/MPAI.K),0,2,.25) 00002670 0267 T FIALDT=0,.05,.15,.30,.50,.70,.85,.95,1 00002680 1PAGE 6 WORLD3 - THE DYNAMICS OF GROWTH IN A FINITE WORLD (C) 1978 UND 0268 A MPLD.K=LY.K/(DCPH.K*SD) 00002690 0269 C SD=.07 00002700 0270 A MPAI.K=ALAI.K*LY.K*MLYMC.K/LYMC.K 00002710 0271 A MLYMC.K=TABHL(MLYMCT,AIPH.K,0,600,40) 00002720 0272 T MLYMCT=.075,.03,.015,.011,.009,.003,.007,.006,.005,.005,.005,.005, 00002730 X .005,.005,.005,.005 00002740 0273 NOTE 00002750 0274 A ALL.K=ALLN*LLMY.K 00002760 0275 C ALLN=6000 00002770 0276 A LLMY.K=CLIP(LLMY2.K,LLMY1.K,TIME.K,PYEAR) 00002780 0277 A LLMY1.K=TABHL(LLMY1T,LY.K/ILF,0,9,1) 00002790 0278 T LLMY1T=1.2,1,.63,.36,.16,.055,.04,.025,.015,.01 00002800 0279 A LLMY2.K=TABHL(LLMY2T,LY.K/ILF,0,9,1) 00002810 0280 T LLMY2T=1.2,1,.63,.36,.16,.055,.04,.025,.015,.01 00002820 0281 R LER.KL=AL.K/ALL.K 00002830 0282 A UILPC.K=TABHL(UILPCT,IOPC.K,0,1600,200) 00002840 0283 T UILPCT=.005,.0081,015,.025,.04,.055,.07,.08,.09 00002850 0284 A UILR.K=UILPC.K*POP.K 00002860 0285 R LRUI.KL=MAX(0,(UILR.K,UIL.K)/UILDT) 00002870 0286 C UILDT=10 00002880 0287 L UIL.K=INTGRL(LRUI.JK) 00002890 0288 N UIL=UILI 00002900 0289 C UILI=8.2E6 00002910 0290 NOTE 00002920 0291 NOTE LOOP 4- LAND AND FERTILITY DEGRADATION 00002930 0292 NOTE 00002940 0293 L LFERT.K=INTGRL(LFR.JK-LFD.JK) 00002950 0294 N LFERT=LFERTI 00002960 0295 C LFERTI=600 00002970 0296 A LFDR.K=TABHL(LFDRT,PPOLX.K,0,30,10) 00002980 0297 T LFDRT=0,.1,.3,.5 00002990 0298 R LFD.KL=LFERT.K*LFDR.K 00003000 0299 NOTE 00003010 0300 NOTE LOOP 5 - LAND FERTILITY REGENERATION 00003020 0301 NOTE 00003030 0302 R LFR.KL=(ILF-LFERT.K)/LFRT.K 00003040 0303 C ILF=600 00003050 0304 A LFRT.K=TABHL(LFRTT,FALM.K,0,.10,.02) 00003060 0305 T LFRTT=20,13,8,4,2,2 00003070 0306 NOTE 00003080 0307 NOTE LOOP 6- DISCONTINUING LAND MAINTENANCE 00003090 0308 NOTE 00003100 0309 A FALM.K=TABHL(FALMT,PFR.K,0,4,1) 00003110 0310 T FALMT=0,.04,.07,.09,1 00003120 0311 A FR.K=FPC.K/SFPC 00003130 0312 C SFPC=230 00003140 0313 A PFR.K=NEW4.K 00003150 0314 N NEW4=1.2290 00003160 0315 L NEW4.K=INTGRL(NE4RAT.JK) 00003170 0316 R NE4RAT.KL=(FR.K-NEW4.K)/FSPD 00003180 0317 C FSPD=2 00003190 0318 NOTE 00003200 0319 NOTE NONRENEWABLE RESOURCE SECTOR 00003210 0320 NOTE 00003220 0321 L NR.K=INTGRL(-NRUR.JK) 00003230 0322 N NR=NRI 00003240 0323 C NRI=1E12 00003250 1PAGE 7 WORLD3 - THE DYNAMICS OF GROWTH IN A FINITE WORLD (C) 1978 UND 0324 R NRUR.KL=(POP.K)(PCRUM.K)(NRUF.K) 00003260 0325 A NRUF.K=CLIP(NRUF2,NRUF1,TIME.K,PYEAR) 00003270 0326 C NRUF1=1 00003280 0327 C NRUF2=1 00003290 0328 A PCRUM.K=TABHL(PCRUMT,IOPC.K,0,1600,200) 00003300 0329 T PCRUMT=0,.85,2.6,4.4,5.4,6.2,6.8,7,7 00003310 0330 A NRFR.K=NR.K/NRI 00003320 0331 A FCAOR.K=CLIP(FCAOR2.K,FCAOR1.K,TIME.K,PYEAR) 00003330 0332 A FCAOR1.K=TABHL(FCAR1T,NRFR.K,0,1,.1) 00003340 0333 T FCAR1T=1,.9,.7,.5,.2,.1,.05,.05,.05,.05,.05 00003350 0334 A FCAOR2.K=TABHL(FCAR2T,NRFR.K,0,1,.1) 00003360 0335 T FCAR2T=1,.9,.7,.5,.2,.1,.05,.05,.05,.05,.05 00003370 0336 NOTE 00003380 0337 NOTE PERSISTENT POLLUTION SECTOR 00003390 0338 NOTE 00003400 0339 R PPGR.KL=(PPGIO.K+PPGAO.K)*(PPGF.K) 00003410 0340 A PPGF.K=CLIP(PPGF2,PPGF1,TIME.K,PYEAR) 00003420 0341 C PPGF1=1 00003430 0342 C PPGF2=1 00003440 0343 A PPGIO.K=PCRUM.K*POP.K*FRPM*IMEF*IMTI 00003450 0344 C FRPM=.02 00003460 0345 C IMEF=.1 00003470 0346 C IMTI=10 00003480 0347 A PPGAO.K=AIPH.K*AL.K*FIPM*AMTI 00003490 0348 C FIPM=.001 00003500 0349 C AMTI=1 00003510 0350 R PPAPR.KL=DP3.K/(PPTD/3) 00003520 0351 N DP1=(11.489E6)(PPTD/3) 00003530 0352 N DP2=(11.489E6)(PPTD/3) 00003540 0353 N DP3=(11.489E6)(PPTD/3) 00003550 0354 L DP1.K=INTGRL(PPGR.JK-RP1.JK) 00003560 0355 L DP2.K=INTGRL(RP1.JK-RP2.JK) 00003570 0356 L DP3.K=INTGRL(RP2.JK-RP3.JK) 00003580 0357 R RP1.KL=DP1.K/(PPTD/3) 00003590 0358 R RP2.KL=DP2.K/(PPTD/3) 00003600 0359 R RP3.KL=DP3.K/(PPTD/3) 00003610 0360 C PPTD=20 00003620 0361 L PPOL.K=INTGRL(PPAPR.JK-PPASR.JK) 00003630 0362 N PPOL=2.5E7 00003640 0363 A PPOLX.K=PPOL.K/PPOL70 00003650 0364 C PPOL70=1.36E8 00003660 0365 A AHLM.K=TABHL(AHLMT,PPOLX.K,1,1001,250) 00003670 0366 T AHLMT=1,11,21,31,41 00003680 0367 A AHL.K=AHL70*AHLM.K 00003690 0368 C AHL70=1.5 00003700 0369 R PPASR.KL=PPOL.K/(AHL.K*1.4) 00003710 0370 NOTE 00003720 0371 NOTE SUPPLEMENTARY EQUATIONS 00003730 0372 NOTE 00003740 0373 S FCA.K=(.22)(F.K)/(.22*F.K+SO.K+IO.K) 00003750 $ 1) ***** W A R N I N G ***** ND0588 0374 S FCI.K=IO.K/(.22*F.K+SO.K+IO.K) 00003760 $ 1) ***** W A R N I N G ***** ND0588 1PAGE 8 WORLD3 - THE DYNAMICS OF GROWTH IN A FINITE WORLD (C) 1978 UND 0375 S FCS.K=SO.K/(.22*F.K+SO.K+IO.K) 00003770 $ 1) ***** W A R N I N G ***** ND0588 0376 NOTE 00003780 0377 NOTE CONTROL CARDS FOR SIMULATION 00003790 0378 NOTE 00003800 0379 PARM DT=1 00003810 0380 PARM START=1900 00003820 0381 PARM STOP=1975 00003830 0382 PARM PRTPER=1 00003840 0383 PARM PLTPER=1 00003845 0384 C PYEAR=1975 00003850 0385 PRINT POP,IC,IO,IOPC,AL,NR 00003860 0386 PLOT POP/IC/IO/IOPC/AL/NR 00003870 1PAGE 9 WORLD3 - THE DYNAMICS OF GROWTH IN A FINITE WORLD (C) 1978 UND * * * S T A T S A N D O P T I O N S * * * 386 SOURCE STATEMENTS 8 DIAGNOSTIC MESSAGES 8 WARNINGS CARD TYPE OCCURRENCE T 46 C 63 PARM 5 N 29 L 29 A 111 R 38 S 5 X 2 * 1 NOTE 56 PRINT 1 PLOT 1 TITLE 1 OPTIONS IN EFFECT: NOCHECK NOSYSTEM NODOCUMENT WIDE STATS GO NOSYMBOL NOXREF WARN NOOBJECT SOURCE NOTIME INTEGRATION METHOD: EULER LOWER SUM 1PAGE 10 WORLD3 - THE DYNAMICS OF GROWTH IN A FINITE WORLD (C) 1978 UND TIME POP IC IO IOPC AL NR E+03 E+09 E+09 E+09 E+00 E+06 E+12 1.9000 1.6000 210.00 66.500 41.563 900.00 1.0000 1.9010 1.6097 218.67 61.008 37.901 894.62 0.9997 1.9020 1.6126 225.08 48.205 29.893 888.89 0.9995 1.9030 1.6077 226.18 7.162 4.455 882.46 0.9993 1.9040 1.6016 211.76 6.706 4.187 874.44 0.9992 1.9050 1.5938 198.35 6.281 3.941 866.45 0.9992 1.9060 1.5842 185.85 5.885 3.715 858.49 0.9992 1.9070 1.5726 174.20 5.516 3.508 850.57 0.9991 1.9080 1.5596 163.32 5.172 3.316 842.70 0.9991 1.9090 1.5463 153.16 4.850 3.137 834.89 0.9991 1.9100 1.5331 143.67 4.549 2.967 827.13 0.9991 1.9110 1.5201 134.78 4.268 2.808 819.44 0.9991 1.9120 1.5073 126.46 4.005 2.657 811.80 0.9990 1.9130 1.4945 118.67 3.758 2.515 804.22 0.9990 1.9140 1.4817 111.37 3.527 2.380 796.70 0.9990 1.9150 1.4690 104.53 3.310 2.253 789.24 0.9990 1.9160 1.4564 98.12 3.107 2.133 781.83 0.9990 1.9170 1.4437 92.10 2.916 2.020 774.49 0.9990 1.9180 1.4314 86.45 2.738 1.913 767.21 0.9990 1.9190 1.4198 81.16 2.570 1.810 759.98 0.9989 1.9200 1.4088 76.18 2.413 1.712 752.81 0.9989 1.9210 1.3980 71.52 2.265 1.620 745.69 0.9989 1.9220 1.3874 67.13 2.126 1.532 738.62 0.9989 1.9230 1.3769 63.02 1.996 1.449 731.60 0.9989 1.9240 1.3665 59.16 1.873 1.371 724.64 0.9989 1.9250 1.3560 55.53 1.758 1.297 717.72 0.9989 1.9260 1.3455 52.12 1.650 1.227 710.85 0.9989 1.9270 1.3351 48.92 1.549 1.160 704.04 0.9989 1.9280 1.3246 45.91 1.454 1.098 697.27 0.9989 1.9290 1.3142 43.09 1.364 1.038 690.56 0.9989 1.9300 1.3037 40.43 1.280 0.982 683.89 0.9989 1.9310 1.2933 37.94 1.202 0.929 677.28 0.9988 1.9320 1.2829 35.60 1.127 0.879 670.72 0.9988 1.9330 1.2725 33.41 1.058 0.831 664.21 0.9988 1.9340 1.2621 31.34 0.993 0.786 657.75 0.9988 1.9350 1.2518 29.41 0.931 0.744 651.34 0.9988 1.9360 1.2415 27.59 0.874 0.704 644.98 0.9988 1.9370 1.2313 25.88 0.820 0.666 638.67 0.9988 1.9380 1.2211 24.28 0.769 0.630 632.42 0.9988 1.9390 1.2110 22.77 0.721 0.595 626.21 0.9988 1.9400 1.2009 21.36 0.676 0.563 620.06 0.9988 1.9410 1.1929 20.03 0.634 0.532 613.95 0.9988 1.9420 1.1847 18.78 0.595 0.502 607.89 0.9988 1.9430 1.1764 17.61 0.558 0.474 601.86 0.9988 1.9440 1.1681 16.52 0.523 0.448 595.88 0.9988 1.9450 1.1597 15.48 0.490 0.423 589.94 0.9988 1.9460 1.1513 14.52 0.460 0.399 584.04 0.9988 1.9470 1.1428 13.61 0.431 0.377 578.18 0.9988 1.9480 1.1344 12.76 0.404 0.356 572.37 0.9988 1.9490 1.1259 11.96 0.379 0.336 566.60 0.9988 1.9500 1.1174 11.21 0.355 0.318 560.87 0.9988 1.9510 1.1090 10.50 0.333 0.300 555.18 0.9988 1.9520 1.1005 9.84 0.312 0.283 549.53 0.9988 1.9530 1.0921 9.23 0.292 0.268 543.93 0.9988 1.9540 1.0836 8.64 0.274 0.253 538.37 0.9988 1PAGE 11 WORLD3 - THE DYNAMICS OF GROWTH IN A FINITE WORLD (C) 1978 UND TIME POP IC IO IOPC AL NR E+03 E+09 E+09 E+09 E+00 E+06 E+12 1.9550 1.0752 8.10 0.257 0.239 532.85 0.9988 1.9560 1.0668 7.59 0.240 0.225 527.38 0.9988 1.9570 1.0584 7.11 0.225 0.213 521.95 0.9988 1.9580 1.0501 6.66 0.211 0.201 516.56 0.9988 1.9590 1.0417 6.24 0.198 0.190 511.21 0.9988 1.9600 1.0335 5.85 0.185 0.179 505.90 0.9988 1.9610 1.0252 5.48 0.173 0.169 500.64 0.9988 1.9620 1.0170 5.13 0.162 0.160 495.42 0.9988 1.9630 1.0088 4.80 0.152 0.151 490.24 0.9988 1.9640 1.0007 4.50 0.142 0.142 485.10 0.9988 1.9650 0.9926 4.21 0.133 0.134 480.00 0.9988 1.9660 0.9846 3.95 0.125 0.127 474.94 0.9988 1.9670 0.9766 3.70 0.117 0.120 469.92 0.9988 1.9680 0.9686 3.46 0.110 0.113 464.95 0.9988 1.9690 0.9608 3.24 0.103 0.107 460.01 0.9988 1.9700 0.9529 3.03 0.096 0.101 455.11 0.9988 1.9710 0.9451 2.84 0.090 0.095 450.26 0.9988 1.9720 0.9374 2.66 0.084 0.090 445.44 0.9988 1.9730 0.9297 2.49 0.079 0.085 440.66 0.9988 1.9740 0.9221 2.33 0.074 0.080 435.92 0.9988 1.9750 0.9146 2.18 0.069 0.076 431.22 0.9988 1PAGE 12 WORLD3 - THE DYNAMICS OF GROWTH IN A FINITE WORLD (C) 1978 UND P=POP I=IC A=IO B=IOPC C=AL N=NR P 9.1E+8 1.1075E+9 1.305E+9 1.5025E+9 1.7E+9 I 2.1E+9 5.9075E+10 1.1605E+11 1.7303E+11 2.3E+11 A 6.9E+7 1.6802E+10 3.3535E+10 5.0267E+10 6.7E+10 B .075 10.556 21.038 31.519 42 C 4.3E+8 5.475E+8 6.65E+8 7.825E+8 9E+8 N 9.9E+11 9.925E+11 9.95E+11 9.975E+11 1E+12 1900 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .P. I . . .AC AB,CN . . . . PBA I NC. . . . A . P N I . IC,AB T . A . . . P N C I. AB I . A . . . P I C . IN,AB M . A . . . P NC . PI,AB E . A . . . I P CN . AB . A . . I P CN . AB . A . . I . P C N . AB . A . . I . P C N . AB 1910 . . . A . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .I. . . . . . .P. . C . . N . . . . AB . A . . I . P C N . AB . A . . I .P C N . AB . A . .I P. C N . AB . A . I . P . C N . AB . AB . I . P .C N . . A . I . P C N . AB . A . I . P C. N . AB . A . I . P C . N . AB . AB . I . P C . N . 1920 . .A. . . . . . . . . . . . .I. . . . . . . . . . . . . P . C . . . . . . . . .N. . . . . AB . A . I . P C . N . AB . A . I . P C . N . AB . A . I . P C . N . AB . AB I . P C . N . . AB I. . P C . N . . A I . . P C . N . AB . A I . . P C . N . AB . A I . . P C . N . AB . A I . .P C . N . AB 1930 . A . . . . . .I. . . . . . . . . . . . . . P . C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N . . . . . AB .AB I . P. C . N . .AB I . P .C . N . .AB I . P C . N . .A I . P C. . N . AB .A I . P C . . N . AB .A I . P C . . N . AB .A I . P C . . N . AB .A I . P C . . N . AB .A I . P C . . N . AB 1940 .A. . .I. . . . . . . . . . . . P . C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N . . . . . AB .A I . P C . . N . AB .A I . P C . . N . AB .A I . P C . . N . AB .A I . P C . . N . AB .A I . P C . . N . AB .A I . P C . . N . AB AB I . P C . . N . AB I . P C . . N . AB I . P C . . N . 1PAGE 13 WORLD3 - THE DYNAMICS OF GROWTH IN A FINITE WORLD (C) 1978 UND P=POP I=IC A=IO B=IOPC C=AL N=NR P 9.1E+8 1.1075E+9 1.305E+9 1.5025E+9 1.7E+9 I 2.1E+9 5.9075E+10 1.1605E+11 1.7303E+11 2.3E+11 A 6.9E+7 1.6802E+10 3.3535E+10 5.0267E+10 6.7E+10 B .075 10.556 21.038 31.519 42 C 4.3E+8 5.475E+8 6.65E+8 7.825E+8 9E+8 N 9.9E+11 9.925E+11 9.95E+11 9.975E+11 1E+12 1950 AB. I . . . . . . . . .P.C. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .N. . . . . . A I PC . . N . AB A I PC . . N . AB A I PC. . . N . AB A I PC . . . N . AB A I PC . . . N . AB A I PC . . . N . AB A I P . . . N . PC,AB A I P . . . N . PC,AB A I P . . . N . PC,AB 1960 AI. . . . . . P . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .N. . . . . . PC,AB AI P . . . N . PC,AB AI P . . . N . PC,AB AI P . . . N . PC,AB AI P . . . N . PC,AB AI P . . . N . PC,AB AI P . . . N . PC,AB AI P . . . N . PC,AB AI P . . . N . PC,AB I P . . . N . PC,IAB 1970 I . .P. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .N. . . . . . PC,IAB I P . . . N . PC,IAB I P . . . N . PC,IAB I P . . . N . PC,IAB IP . . . N . PC,IAB 1975 IP. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .N. . . . . . IABC