1' NAME--MACRO 2' 3' DESCRIPTION--MULTIPLE REGRESSIONS OF NAT'L INCOME & PRODUCT ACCTS 4' 5' SOURCE--REVISED 6/26/69 BY D. DOWNES 6' 7' INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE USE OF THIS PROGRAM ARE CONTAINED IN THE 8' LIBRARY PROGRAM "INSTRUCT***" 9' 10'THIS PROGRAM WAS WRITTEN FOR STUDENT USE AT AMOS TUCK SCHOOL OF 11' HANOVER, N.H. WHICH DOES NOT ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR ITS 12' ACCURACY. 13' 14' * * * * * * * * * * MAIN PROGRAM * * * * * * 15' 20 DIM X(28,28),D(21,28),T(28),B(28),R(28,28),C(28,28),F(28,21) 21 DIM A(10,10),Y(10),M(10),S(10),U(10,10),Q(21),E(10),Z(28) 23 LET B5=H=X9=L6=L7=L8=L9=0 24 LET N=21 25 PRINT" HOW MANY REGRESSIONS DO YOU WANT TO RUN"; 26 INPUT G 27 GOSUB 850 29 IF H>0 THEN 32 30 PRINT"***REGRESSION 1" 32 LET N8=N7-1947 33 LET N=21 34 LET V=28 35 MAT READ F(V,N) 36 MAT D=TRN(F) 38 FOR I=1 TO N 39 LET D(I,0)=1 40 NEXT I 42 PRINT" DO YOU WANT TO TRANSFORM THE DATA"; 44 INPUT A5$ 45 IF A5$="NO" THEN 58 48 IF H>0 THEN 55 50 PRINT" TO TRANSFORM DATA, SEE INSTRUCTIONS IN'INSTRUCT***'" 55 PRINT" TYPE IN THE SWITCHES"; 56 INPUT L6,L7,L8,L9 58 LET H=H+1 60 GOSUB 900 62 GOSUB 890 65 PRINT" HOW MANY INDEPENDENT VARIABLES DO YOU WANT"; 67 INPUT K 70 PRINT" WHAT ARE THEY" 71 FOR J=1 TO K 72 INPUT E(J) 73 NEXT J 75 PRINT" WHAT IS THE INDEX OF THE DEPENDENT VARIABLE"; 77 LET M=K+1 78 INPUT E(M) 80 GOSUB 1800 82 PRINT" DO YOU WANT THE RESIDUALS PRINTED"; 83 INPUT A5$ 85 IF A5$="YES" THEN 90 87 LET P2=0 88 GO TO 95 90 LET P2=1 95 LET P1=0 148 PRINT 149 PRINT 150 PRINT "**REGRESSION NUMBER"H":DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS"E(M) 155 PRINT 165 FOR I=0 TO V 170 FOR J=0 TO V 175 LET X=0 180 FOR L= N8 TO N9 185 LET X=X+D(L,I)*D(L,J) 190 NEXT L 195 LET X(I,J)=X 200 LET C(I,J)=X 205 NEXT J 210 LET T(I)=X(0,I)/X(0,0) 215 LET B(I)=0 220 IF I=0 THEN 230 225 LET B(I)=SQR(X(I,I)/(N-1)-X(0,I)*X(0,I)/(N*(N-1))) 230 NEXT I 235 PRINT "INDEX", "MEANS", "STANDARD DEVIATIONS" 240 FOR I=1 TO M 245 LET M(I)=T(E(I)) 250 LET S(I)=B(E(I)) 255 PRINT E(I), M(I), S(I) 260 NEXT I 265 PRINT 270 PRINT 275 PRINT "CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS" 285 FOR I=1 TO V 290 FOR J=1 TO V 295 LET R(I,J)=(N*X(I,J)-X(0,I)*X(0,J))/(N*(N-1)*B(I)*B(J)) 300 NEXT J 305 NEXT I 310 FOR I=1 TO M 315 FOR J=1 TO M 320 LET U(I,J)=R(E(I),E(J)) 325 PRINT U(I,J), 330 NEXT J 335 PRINT 340 PRINT 345 NEXT I 350 PRINT 355 LET E(0)=0 360 FOR I=0 TO K 365 LET Y(I)=C(E(I),E(M)) 370 FOR J=0 TO K 375 LET X(I,J)=C(E(I),E(J)) 380 NEXT J 385 NEXT I 390 FOR I=0 TO K 395 FOR J=0 TO K 400 IF I<>J THEN 415 405 LET A(I,J)=1 410 GO TO 420 415 LET A(I,J)=0 420 NEXT J 425 NEXT I 430 FOR I=0 TO K 435 IF X(I,I)<1E-6 THEN 805 440 LET Y(I)=Y(I)/X(I,I) 445 FOR J=0 TO K 450 LET A(I,J)=A(I,J)/X(I,I) 455 IF J=I THEN 465 460 LET X(I,J)=X(I,J)/X(I,I) 465 NEXT J 470 LET X(I,I)=1 475 FOR L=0 TO K 480 IF L=I THEN 520 485 LET Y(L)=Y(L)-X(L,I)*Y(I) 490 FOR J=0 TO K 495 LET A(L,J)=A(L,J)-X(L,I)*A(I,J) 500 IF J=I THEN 510 505 LET X(L,J)=X(L,J)-X(L,I)*X(I,J) 510 NEXT J 515 LET X(L,I)=0 520 NEXT L 525 NEXT I 530 LET S6=C(E(M),E(M)) 535 FOR I=0 TO K 540 LET S6=S6-Y(I)*C(E(I),E(M)) 545 NEXT I 550 LET S7=S6/(N-M) 555 LET R2=1-S7/(S(M)*S(M)) 556 IF R2 > 0 THEN 560 557 LET R2=0 560 LET R=SQR(R2) 565 LET S8=SQR(S7) 570 IF P1=0 THEN 580 575 PRINT "VARIANCE-COVARIANCE MATRIX" 580 FOR I=0 TO K 585 FOR J=0 TO K 590 LET A(I,J)=A(I,J)*S7 595 IF P1=0 THEN 605 600 PRINT A(I,J), 605 NEXT J 610 IF P1=0 THEN 625 615 PRINT 620 PRINT 625 NEXT I 630 PRINT 635 PRINT "INDEX", "B", "STD. ERROR", "T-RATIO" 640 FOR I=0 TO K 645 PRINT E(I), Y(I), SQR(A(I,I)), Y(I)/SQR(A(I,I)) 650 NEXT I 655 PRINT 660 PRINT "R-SQUARED=" R2, "R=" R 665 PRINT 670 PRINT "STAND. ERROR OF EST.= ";S8, "D.F.= ";N-M 675 PRINT 680 FOR I = N8 TO N9 685 LET Z=D(I,E(M))-Y(0) 690 FOR J=1 TO K 695 LET Z=Z-Y(J)*D(I,E(J)) 700 NEXT J 705 LET Q(I)=Z 710 NEXT I 715 LET W=0 720 FOR I = N8 + 1 TO N9 725 LET W=W+(Q(I)-Q(I-1))*(Q(I)-Q(I-1)) 730 NEXT I 735 PRINT 740 IF P2=0 THEN 775 745 PRINT "ACTUAL", "PREDICTED", "RESIDUAL" 750 FOR I = N8 TO N9 760 PRINT D(I,E(M)), D(I,E(M))-Q(I), Q(I) 770 NEXT I 775 PRINT 780 PRINT "DURBIN-WATSON STAT.=" W/S6 785 IF H1968 THEN 885 865 LET N8=N7-1947 870 LET N9=N9-1947 875 RETURN 885 PRINT" DATA AVAILABLE ONLY FOR YEARS 1948 THRU 1968." 887 GO TO 850 890 LET X9=L8+L9 892 IF N8>X9 THEN 896 894 LET N8=N8+(X9-N8)+1 896 LET N=N9-N8+1 898 RETURN 900 IF L6<1 THEN 1420 920 LET Z8=0 930 LET Z8=Z8+1 940 PRINT" OPERATION"Z8"IS"; 950 INPUT A6$ 960 IF A6$="END" THEN 1420 970 IF A6$="A" THEN 1040 980 IF A6$="S" THEN 1160 990 IF A6$="M" THEN 1250 1000 IF A6$="D" THEN 1340 1010 PRINT" INCORRECT INSTRUCTION" 1020 GO TO 940 1040 PRINT" HOW MANY ACCOUNTS DO YOU WISH TO ADD TOGETHER"; 1050 INPUT J2 1060 PRINT" WHICH ACCOUNTS" 1070 FOR J9 = 1 TO J2 1080 INPUT Z(J9) 1090 NEXT J9 1100 FOR J = N8 TO N9 1110 FOR J9=2 TO J2 1120 LET D(J,Z(1))=D(J,Z(1))+D(J,Z(J9)) 1130 NEXT J9 1135 NEXT J 1140 PRINT" INDEX NUMBER OF SUMMARY ACCOUNT IS";Z(1) 1145 GO TO 930 1160 PRINT" WHICH TWO ACCOUNTS DO YOU WISH TO SUBTRACT"; 1170 INPUT J2,J3 1180 FOR J = N8 TO N9 1190 LET D(J,J2)=D(J,J2)-D(J,J3) 1200 NEXT J 1205 PRINT" INDEX NUMBER OF SUMMARY ACCOUNT IS";J2 1210 GO TO 930 1250 PRINT" WHICH TWO ACCOUNTS DO YOU WISH TO MULTIPLY"; 1260 INPUT J2,J3 1270 FOR J = N8 TO N9 1280 LET D(J,J2)=D(J,J2)*D(J,J3) 1290 NEXT J 1295 PRINT" INDEX NUMBER OF SUMMARY ACCOUNT IS";J2 1300 GO TO 930 1340 PRINT" WHICH TWO ACCOUNTS DO YOU WISH TO DIVIDE"; 1350 INPUT J2,J3 1360 FOR J = N8 TO N9 1370 LET D(J,J2)=D(J,J2)/D(J,J3) 1380 NEXT J 1385 PRINT" INDEX NUMBER OF SUMMARY ACCOUNT IS";J2 1390 GO TO 930 1420 IF L7<1 THEN 1550 1430 PRINT" HOW MANY ACCOUNTS DO YOU WISH TO CONVERT TO LOGS"; 1440 INPUT J2 1450 PRINT" WHICH ACCOUNTS" 1460 FOR I= 1 TO J2 1470 INPUT J3 1500 FOR J= N8 TO N9 1510 LET D(J,J3)=LOG(D(J,J3)) 1520 NEXT J 1530 NEXT I 1550 RETURN 1800 IF L8<1 THEN 2000 1830 PRINT" HOW MANY ACCOUNTS DO YOU WISH TO LAG"; 1840 INPUT J2 1850 PRINT" WHICH ACCOUNTS" 1870 FOR I= 1 TO J2 1880 INPUT J3 1890 FOR J=N9 TO N8 STEP-1 1900 LET D(J,J3)=D(J-1,J3) 1910 NEXT J 1920 NEXT I 2000 IF L9<1 THEN 2150 2030 PRINT" OF HOW MANY ACCOUNTS DO YOU WISH TO TAKE FIRST DIFFERENCES"; 2040 INPUT J4 2050 PRINT" WHICH ACCOUNTS" 2065 FOR I= 1 TO J4 2070 INPUT J5 2080 FOR J=N9 TO N8 STEP-1 2090 LET D(J,J5)=D(J,J5)-D(J-1,J5) 2100 NEXT J 2110 NEXT I 2150 RETURN 9000 'NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS 9010 'GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT 9011 DATA 257.6,256.5,284.8,328.4,345.5,364.6,364.8,398 9012 DATA 419.2,441.1,447.3,483.7,503.7,520.1,560.3,590.5,632.4 9013 DATA 684.9,747.6,789.7,860.7 9020 'PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 9021 'DURABLE GOODS 9022 DATA 22.7,24.6,30.5,29.6,29.3,33.2,32.8,39.6,38.9,40.8 9023 DATA 37.9,44.3,45.3,44.2,49.5,53.9,59.2,66.3,70.5,72.6,82.5 9025 'NONDURABLE GOODS 9026 DATA 96.2,94.5,98.1,108.8,114,116.8,118.3,123.3,129.3 9027 DATA 135.6,140.2,146.6,151.3,155.9,162.6,168.6,178.7,191.2 9028 DATA 206.7,215.8,230.2 9030 'SERVICES 9031 DATA 54.7,57.6,62.4,67.9,73.4,79.9,85.4,91.4,98.5,105,112 9032 DATA 120.3,128.7,135.1,143,152.4,163.3,175.5,188.3,203.8,221 9040 'PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 9045 'NONRESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES 9046 DATA 8.8,8.5,9.2,11.2,11.4,12.7,13.1,14.3,17.2,18,16.6 9047 DATA 16.7,18.1,18.4,19.2,19.5,21.2,25.5,28.5,27.9,29.2 9050 'PRODUCERS DURABLE EQUIPMENT 9051 DATA 18.1,16.6,18.7,20.7,20.2,21.5,20.6,23.8,26.5,28.4 9052 DATA 25,28.4,30.3,28.6,32.5,34.8,39.9,45.8,52.8,55.7,60.8 9055 'RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES 9056 DATA 14.4,13.7,19.4,17.2,17.2,18,19.7,23.3,21.6,20.2 9057 DATA 20.8,25.5,22.8,22.6,25.3,27,27.1,27.2,24.8,24.6,30 9060 'CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES 9061 DATA 4.7,-3.1,6.8,10.3,3.1,0.4,-1.5,6,4.7,1.3,-1.5,4.8 9062 DATA 3.6,2,6,5.9,5.8,9.6,14.7,6.1,7.6 9070 'NET EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES 9071 DATA 6.4,6.1,1.8,3.7,2.2,0.4,1.8,2,4,5.7,2.2,0.1,4 9072 DATA 5.6,5.1,5.9,8.5,6.9,5.1,4.8,2.4 9080 'GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES 9081 'NATIONAL DEFENSE 9082 DATA 10.7,13.3,14.1,33.6,45.9,48.7,41.2,38.6,40.3,44.2,45.9 9083 DATA 46,44.9,47.8,51.6,50.8,50,50.1,60.6,72.4,78.9 9085 'OTHER FEDERAL 9086 DATA 5.8,6.8,4.3,4.1,5.9,8.4,6.2,5.5,5.3,5.3,7.7,7.6,8.6 9087 DATA 9.6,11.8,13.5,15.2,16.8,16.8,18.2,21.1 9090 'STATE AND LOCAL 9091 DATA 15,17.7,19.5,21.5,22.9,24.6,27.4,30.1,33,36.6,40.6 9092 DATA 43.3,46.1,50.2,53.7,58.2,63.5,70.1,78.8,87.8,97.1 9100 'IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS 9110 'PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GNP 9111 DATA .796,.791,.802,.856,.875,.883,.896,.909,.940,.975 9112 DATA 1.00,1.016,1.033,1.046,1.058,1.072,1.088,1.109,1.139 9113 DATA 1.173,1.218 9120 'PRICE DEFLATORS FOR PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 9125 'PRICE DEFLATORS FOR DURABLE GOODS 9126 DATA .863,.868,.878,.942,.954,.943,.929,.919,.949,.984,1.0 9127 DATA 1.014,1.009,1.006,1.008,1.004,1.004,.996,.988,1.004,1.031 9130 'PRICE DEFLATORS FOR NONDURABLE GOODS 9131 DATA .885,.856,.860,.933,.943,.939,.942,.936,.949,.977,1,.999 9132 DATA 1.012,1.019,1.028,1.04,1.049,1.069,1.106,1.129,1.169 9135 'PRICE DEFLATORS FOR SERVICES 9136 DATA .721,.743,.763,.8,.836,.877,.9,.92,.946,.973,1,1.03 9137 DATA 1.058,1.076,1.09,1.109,1.131,1.151,1.181,1.221,1.272 9150 'PRICE DEFLATORS FOR PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 9151 'PRICE DEFLATORS FOR NONRESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES 9152 DATA .715,.712,.729,.793,.832,.849,.86,.881,.934,.986,1,1.027 9153 DATA 1.04,1.056,1.071,1.089,1.111,1.147,1.19,1.236,1.297 9160 'PRICE DEFLATORS FOR PRODUCERS DURABLE EQUIPMENT 9161 DATA .703,.736,.752,.809,.822,.835,.84,.859,.918,.975,1,1.02 9162 DATA 1.022,1.021,1.023,1.023,1.03,1.039,1.06,1.091,1.12 9170 'PRICE DEFLATORS FOR RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES 9171 DATA .808,.785,.825,.886,.908,.919,.904,.929,.974,.998,1,1.031 9172 DATA 1.045,1.05,1.067,1.089,1.123,1.142,1.174,1.231,1.299 9180 'PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES 9181 'PRICE DEFLATORS FOR FEDERAL GOVERNMENT 9182 DATA .698,.73,.729,.794,.812,.814,.835,.869,.917,.958,1,1.022 9183 DATA 1.042,1.052,1.056,1.08,1.122,1.155,1.188,1.212,1.261 9190 'PRICE DEFLATORS FOR STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS 9191 DATA .664,.689,.708,.769,.806,.828,.853,.875,.927,.973,1,1.026 9192 DATA 1.059,1.094,1.132,1.163,1.195,1.235,1.284,1.333,1.388 9200 'TOTAL DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 9205 DATA 189.1,188.6,206.9,226.6,238.3,252.6,257.4,275.3 9206 DATA 293.2,308.5,318.8,337.3,350.0,364.4,385.3,404.6,438.1 9207 DATA 473.2,511.6,546.3,589 9210 'DPI:INTEREST PAID & TRANSFER PAYMENTS TO FOREIGNERS 9211 DATA 2.2,2.4,2.9,3.1,3.5,4.3,4.6,5.1,5.9,6.4,6.5,7.1,7.8 9212 DATA 8.1,8.6,9.7,10.7,12,13.1,13.9,14.4 9220 'GOVERNMENT TAX & NONTAX RECEIPTS OR ACCRUALS 9221 DATA 58.9,56,68.7,84.8,89.8,94.3,89.7,100.4,109,115.6 9222 DATA 114.7,128.9,139.8,144.6,157,168.8,174.1,189.1,213.2 9223 DATA 227.4,260.9 9230 'GOVERNMENT TRANSFERS,INTEREST & SUBSIDIES 9231 DATA 18.8,21.3,22.9,19.9,19,19.5,21.9,23.4,25.5,28.7,33,34 9232 DATA 36.5,41.3,42.8,44.4,46.7,49.9,55.3,62.9,70.2 9240 'GROSS BUSINESS RETAINED EARNINGS 9241 DATA 28,29.7,29.4,33.1,35.1,36.1,39.2,46.3,47.3,49.8,49.4 9242 DATA 56.8,56.8,58.7,66.3,68.8,76.2,84.7,91.6,93.1,97.5 9250 'TRANSFERS TO FOREIGNERS BY PERSONS AND GOVERNMENT 9251 DATA 4.5,5.6,4,3.5,2.5,2.5,2.3,2.5,2.4,2.3,2.4,2.4,2.4,2.6 9252 DATA 2.7,2.8,2.8,2.8,2.9,3.1,2.7 9260 'STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY BETWEEN GNP AND TOTAL INCOME OR RECEIPTS 9261 DATA -2,0.3,1.5,3.3,2.2,3,2.7,2.1,-1.1,0,1.6,-0.8,-1,-0.8 9262 DATA 0.5,-0.3,-1.3,-3.1,-3.3,-3.5,-4.7 9999 END