10' NAME--INSTRUCT 20' 30' DESCRIPTION--INSTRUCTIONS FOR USING THE NATIONAL INCOME 32' AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS REGRESSION PROGRAM, MACRO, WHICH 34' COMPUTES ONE OR MORE MULTIPLE REGRESSIONS ON NATIONAL 36' INCOME ACCOUNT DATA. PROGRAM IS SIMILAR TO STAT21, BUT THE 38' USER IS ABLE TO MANIPULATE THE ACCOUNTS BEFORE RUNNING 40' REGRESSIONS. 50' 60' SOURCE--REVISED 6/26/69 BY D. DOWNES 70' 80' INSTRUCTIONS-- GENERAL - LINE 300 82 SELECTION OF YEARS - LINE 900 84 ADDITION OF ACCOUNTS - LINE 1000 86 SUBTRACTION OF ACCOUNTS - LINE 1200 88 MULTIPLICATION OF ACCOUNTS - LINE 1400 90 DIVISION OF ACCOUNTS - LINE 1600 92 LOGARITHMS - LINE 1800 94 LAGGING ACCOUNTS - LINE 2000 96 FIRST DIFFERENCES - LINE 2200 100' 110' THIS PROGRAM WAS WRITTEN FOR STUDENT USE AT AMOS TUCK SCHOOL 112' OF HANOVER, N.H. WHICH DOES NOT ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR 114' ITS ACCURACY. 120' 130' * * * * * * * * * * MAIN PROGRAM * * * * * * * * * * * * 140' 280 ***************GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS*************** 290 21 YEARS DATA(1948-1968) FOR 28 NATIONAL INCOME & PRODUCT ACCOUNTS 300 ARE STORED IN THE DATA LINES OF MACRO. THIS DATA IS ENTERED 310 BY ACCOUNT (I.E. GNP FOR 21 YEARS IS IN LINES 9011 TO 9013). 320 A LIST OF THE ACCOUNTS USED CAN BE FOUND BEGINNING IN LINE 3000 330 OF THESE INSTRUCTIONS. AN INDEX NUMBER PRECEDES EACH ACCOUNT 340 TITLE. 350 360 THE USER MAY REPLACE ACCOUNTS IN THE DATA WITH ACCOUNTS OF HIS 370 OWN CHOOSING. THE PROGRAM IS DIMENSIONED TO THE MAXIMUM ALLOWABLE 380 AND NO ACCOUNTS CAN BE ADDED. IF EXISTING ACCOUNTS ARE REPLACED 390 BY NEW ACCOUNTS, THEY RETAIN THE INDEX NUMBERS OF THE EXISTING 400 ACCOUNTS. BE SURE THAT 21 YEARS OBSERVATIONS ARE ENTERED FOR 410 EACH NEW ACCOUNT AND THAT ALL OF THE OBSERVATIONS OF THE OLD 420 ACCOUNT ARE ERASED (LINE NUMBERS FOR EACH ACCOUNT ARE LISTED 430 STARTING IN LINE 3000 OF THESE INSTRUCTIONS). 440 450 DURING EXECUTION, THE PROGRAM WILL ASK FOR THE NUMBER OF 460 REGRESSIONS YOU WISH TO RUN. NEXT IT WILL ASK FOR THE YEARS 470 WHICH YOU WISH TO USE. THE PROGRAM WILL RUN THE NUMBER OF RE- 480 GRESSIONS WHICH YOU FURNISH IN RESPONSE TO THE FIRST QUESTION 490 USING THE SET OF YEARS WHICH YOU FURNISH IN RESPONSE TO THE 500 SECOND QUESTION. YOU ARE NOT ABLE TO CHANGE THE YEARS FOR 510 EACH REGRESSION, HOWEVER YOU ARE ABLE TO TRANSFORM THE DATA 520 FOR EACH REGRESSION. 530 540 THE PROGRAM ALLOWS THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE DATA IN FOUR WAYS: 550 (1) ARITHMETIC OPERATIONS (ADDITION, SUBTRACTION, MULTIPLICATION 560 AND DIVISION), (2) CONVERSION TO LOGARITHMS, (3) LAGGING 570 ACCOUNTS ONE YEAR, AND (4) FIRST DIFFERENCES. FURTHERMORE YOU ARE 580 ABLE TO VARY THE ORDER IN WHICH THE ARITHMETIC OPERATIONS ARE 590 CARRIED OUT. DURING EXECUTION, THE PROGRAM WILL ASK WHETHER YOU 600 WISH TO TRANSFORM THE DATA. IF YOU TYPE YES, THE PROGRAM WILL 610 DIRECT YOU TO "TYPE IN THE SWITCHES?". EACH TRANSFORMATION IS 620 CONTROLLED SEPARATELY WITH AN OFF-ON SWITCH: IF YOU WANT TO PER- 630 FORM THE OPERATION ENTER 1, IF YOU DON'T ENTER 0(ZERO). TYPE IN 640 THE SWITCHES IN THE SAME ORDER AS THE OPERATIONS ARE LISTED IN 650 LINES 550 AND 560, ABOVE. THUS, IF YOU WANT TO ADD THREE ACCOUNTS, 660 DIVIDE TWO ACCOUNTS AND TAKE FIRST DIFFERENCES, BUT DO NOT WANT 670 TO CONVERT TO LOGS OR LAG ANY ACCOUNTS, YOU SHOULD RESPOND AS 680 FOLLOWS: 690 TYPE IN THE SWITCHES? 1,0,0,1 700 IF A 1 IS ENTERED IN THE FIRST POSITION OF THE SWITCH INPUT, 710 THE PROGRAM ALLOWS YOU TO VARY THE ORDER OF THE ARITHMETIC 720 OPERATIONS BY REQUESTING YOU TO INPUT A CODE FOR EACH OPERATION 730 IN THE ORDER YOU DESIRE THEM TO BE PERFORMED. THE PROGRAM WILL 740 PRINT "OPERATION 1 IS?" AND YOU SHOULD TYPE ONE OF THE FOLLOWING 750 LETTERS: A - ADDITION 760 S - SUBTRACTION 770 M - MULTIPLICATION 780 D - DIVISION 790 FOR EACH OPERATION YOU MUST INPUT ADDITIONAL INFORMATION 800 AS EXPLAINED BELOW. WHEN ALL ARITHMETIC OPERATIONS ARE COMPLETED, 810 TYPE "END", AND THE PROGRAM WILL CONTINUE TO ANY NONARITHMETIC 820 OPERATIONS REQUESTED. IF YOU TYPE NO TO THE PROGRAM'S QUERY 823 AS TO WHETHER YOU WISH TO TRANSFORM THE DATA, THE SWITCHES WILL 825 REMAIN AS THEY WERE IN THE PREVIOUS REGRESSION (ALL FOUR SWITCHES 827 ARE INITIALIZED AT ZERO FOR THE FIRST REGRESSION). 830 840 NEXT THE PROGRAM WILL ASK FOR THE NUMBER OF INDEPENDENT VARIABLES 850 DESIRED. TYPE THE NUMBER AND HIT THE RETURN KEY. THEN 860 THE PROGRAM WILL ASK FOR THESE VARIABLES. ENTER THE INDEX 870 NUMBERS ONE AT A TIME AND HIT THE RETURN KEY AFTER EACH. 880 FOLLOWING THIS OPERATION, YOU WILL BE ASKED TO INPUT THE INDEX 890 NUMBER OF THE DEPENDENT VARIABLE. NO MORE THAN NINE INDEPENDENT 895 VARIABLES ARE ALLOWED. 900 910 ***************SELECTION OF YEARS*************** 920 WHEN ASKED FOR THE YEARS WHICH YOU WISH TO USE, ENTER THE FIRST 930 AND LAST YEARS OF THE PERIOD YOU DESIRE AND SEPARATE THEM BY 940 A COMMA. FOR EXAMPLE, TO USE ALL 21 YEARS ENTER "1948,1968". 950 THE NUMBER OF YEARS SELECTED MUST EXCEED THE NUMBER OF INDEPEN- 960 DENT VARIABLES BY MORE THAN TWO. FURTHERMORE, IF YOU ARE TAKING 970 FIRST DIFFERENCES OR LAGGING ACCOUNTS, THE NUMBER OF YEARS 980 SELECTED MUST EXCEED THE NUMBER OF INDEPENDENT VARIABLES BY AN 990 ADDITIONAL FACTOR OF ONE FOR EACH OF THESE ALTERNATIVES. 1000 1010 ***************ADDITION OF ACCOUNTS*************** 1020 IF ADDITION IS REQUESTED, THE PROGRAM WILL ASK FOR THE NUMBER 1030 OF ACCOUNTS WHICH YOU WISH TO ADD TOGETHER. ENTER THE NUMBER 1040 AND HIT THE RETURN KEY. THE PROGRAM WILL THEN ASK WHICH ACCOUNTS. 1050 ENTER THE INDEX NUMBERS OF THE ACCOUNTS HITTING THE RETURN 1060 KEY AFTER EACH NUMBER. THE INDEX NUMBER OF THE SUMMARY ACCOUNT 1070 WILL BE THE INDEX NUMBER OF THE FIRST ACCOUNT MENTIONED TO BE 1080 SUMMED. 1090 1200 ***************SUBTRACTION OF ACCOUNTS*************** 1210 IF SUBTRACTION IS REQUESTED, THE PROGRAM WILL ASK FOR THE TWO 1220 ACCOUNTS WHICH YOU WISH TO SUBTRACT. ENTER THE INDEX NUMBERS 1230 OF THE TWO ACCOUNTS, SEPARATING THEM BY A COMMA, AND HIT THE 1240 RETURN KEY. THE FIRST INDEX NUMBER ENTERED IS THE ACCOUNT 1250 FROM WHICH THE SECOND ONE IS SUBTRACTED. THE RESULTS WILL 1260 HAVE THE INDEX NUMBER OF THE FIRST ACCOUNT ENTERED. 1270 1400 ***************MULTIPLICATION OF ACCOUNTS*************** 1410 IF MULTIPLICATION IS REQUESTED, THE PROGRAM WILL ASK FOR THE 1420 TWO ACCOUNTS WHICH YOU WISH TO MULTIPLY. ENTER THE INDEX 1430 NUMBERS OF THE TWO ACCOUNTS, SEPARATING THEM BY A COMMA, AND 1440 HIT THE RETURN KEY. THE RESULTING AMOUNTS WILL HAVE THE INDEX 1450 NUMBER OF THE FIRST ACCOUNT ENTERED. 1460 1600 ***************DIVISION OF ACCOUNTS*************** 1610 IF DIVISION IS REQUESTED, THE PROGRAM WILL ASK FOR THE TWO 1620 ACCOUNTS WHICH YOU WISH TO DIVIDE. ENTER THE INDEX NUMBERS OF 1630 THE TWO ACCOUNTS, SEPARATING THEM BY A COMMA, AND HIT THE 1640 RETURN KEY. THE FIRST INDEX NUMBER ENTERED IS THE ACCOUNT 1650 INTO WHICH THE SECOND ONE IS DIVIDED. THE RESULTING AMOUNTS WILL 1660 HAVE THE INDEX NUMBER OF THE FIRST ACCOUNT ENTERED. 1670 1800 ********************LOGARITHMS******************** 1810 IF A 1 IS ENTERED IN THE SECOND POSITION OF THE SWITCH INPUT, 1820 THE PROGRAM WILL ASK FOR THE NUMBER OF ACCOUNTS WHICH YOU 1830 WISH TO CONVERT TO LOGS. ENTER THE NUMBER AND HIT THE RETURN 1840 KEY. THE PROGRAM WILL THEN ASK WHICH ACCOUNTS. ENTER THE 1850 INDEX NUMBER OF EACH ACCOUNT, HITTING THE RETURN KEY AFTER 1860 EACH. WARNING: ACCOUNTS 8 AND 28 CONTAIN NEGATIVE VALUES. 1870 2000 ***************LAGGING ACCOUNTS*************** 2010 IF A 1 IS ENTERED IN THE THIRD POSITION OF THE SWITCH INPUT, 2020 THE PROGRAM WILL ASK FOR THE NUMBER OF ACCOUNTS WHICH YOU 2030 WISH TO LAG. (ACCOUNTS CAN ONLY BE LAGGED ONE YEAR.) ENTER 2040 THE NUMBER AND HIT THE RETURN KEY. THE PROGRAM WILL THEN ASK 2050 WHICH ACCOUNTS. ENTER THE INDEX NUMBER OF EACH ACCOUNT, HITTING 2060 THE RETURN KEY AFTER EACH. SINCE THE DATA FOR 1947 IS NOT 2070 INCLUDED IN THIS PROGRAM, ONE YEAR'S DATA WILL BE LOST WHEN 2080 THE PROGRAM IS RUN FOR A SET OF YEARS STARTING WITH 1948. 2090 2200 ***************FIRST DIFFERENCES*************** 2210 IF A 1 IS ENTERED IN THE FOURTH POSITION OF THE SWITCH INPUT, 2220 THE PROGRAM WILL ASK FOR THE NUMBER OF ACCOUNTS FOR WHICH YOU 2230 WISH TO TAKE FIRST DIFERENCES (AMOUNTS OBTAINED BY SUBTRACTING 2240 EACH YEAR FROM THE SUCCEEDING YEAR). ENTER THE NUMBER AND 2250 HIT THE RETURN KEY. THE PROGRAM WILL THEN ASK WHICH ACCOUNTS. 2260 ENTER THE INDEX NUMBER OF EACH ACCOUNT, HITTING THE RETURN 2270 KEY AFTER EACH. SINCE THE DATA FOR 1947 IS NOT INCLUDED IN 2280 THIS PROGRAM, ONE YEAR'S DATA WILL BE LOST WHEN THE PROGRAM 2290 IS RUN FOR A SET OF YEARS STARTING WITH 1948. 2300 2310 2320 2330 2340 2350 IF YOU HAVE ANY RECOMMENDATIONS CONCERNING THE OPERATIONS OF 2360 MACRO OR THE ACCOUNTS CONTAINED IN ITS DATA, PLEASE GIVE THEM 2370 TO EUNICE BALLAM IN ROOM 4, TUCK SCHOOL. 2380 2390 2400 2410 2420 3000 ***************LIST OF ACCOUNTS*************** 3010 3020 INDEX NO. ACCOUNT LINE NOS. 3030 --------- ------- --------- 3040 1 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT 9011-9013 3050 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 3060 2 DURABLE GOODS 9022-9023 3070 3 NONDURABLE GOODS 9026-9028 3080 4 SERVICES 9031-9032 3090 PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 3100 5 NONRESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES 9046-9047 3110 6 PRODUCERS' DURABLE EQUIPMENT 9051-9052 3120 7 RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES 9056-9057 3130 8 CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES 9061-9062 3140 9 NET EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES 9071-9072 3150 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES 3160 10 NATIONAL DEFENSE 9082-9083 3170 11 OTHER FEDERAL 9086-9087 3180 12 STATE AND LOCAL 9091-9092 3190 IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS 3200 13 FOR GNP 9111-9113 3210 14 FOR DURABLE GOODS 9126-9127 3220 15 FOR NONDURABLE GOODS 9131-9132 3230 16 FOR SERVICES 9136-9137 3240 17 FOR NONRESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES 9152-9153 3250 18 FOR PRODUCERS' DURABLE EQUIPMENT 9161-9162 3260 19 FOR RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES 9171-9172 3270 20 FOR FEDERAL GOVERNMENT 9182-9183 3280 21 FOR STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS 9191-9192 3290 22 TOTAL DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 9205-9207 3300 23 DPI: INTEREST PAID AND TRANSFER 3310 PAYMENTS TO FOREIGNERS 9211-9212 3320 24 GOV'T TAX & NONTAX RECEIPTS 9221-9223 3330 25 GOV'T TRANSFERS,INTEREST & SUBSIDIES 9231-9232 3340 26 GROSS BUSINESS RETAINED EARNINGS 9241-9242 3350 27 TRANSFERS TO FOREIGNERS 9251-9252 3360 28 STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY BETWEEN 3370 GNP & TOTAL INCOME OR RECEIPTS 9261-9262 3380 3390 3400 3410 3420 3430 **ALL OF THE DOLLAR ACCOUNTS ARE IN CURRENT DOLLARS** 3440 3450 SOURCE OF ACCOUNTS: ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT, JAN 1969